LS Forecast

LS Forecast is a solution in LS Retail's Intelligent Cloud Suite to help retailers forecast item sales based on historical sales data.

LS Forecast

Weekly and Monthly Sales Bucket

Variant Sales Bucket

Fields for LS Forecast calculation type

See also

The solution consists of a cloud-based forecasting engine and additional functionality in LS Central for setup, data upload/download, and to utilize the downloaded forecast in Replenishment.

The cloud-based part is built on Microsoft's Cortana Intelligence Suite and uses advanced statistical forecasting techniques such as ARIMA, Seasonal ARIMA, Additive, and Multiplicative models to predict future sales demand from sales history. In replenishment, the forecast results allow you to anticipate demand better so that you can accurately determine what products to order and when to order them.

There are three major areas in the LS Forecast module:

LS Central - contains the setup and source of the data (master data and sales history).
LS Insight - extracts the sales history data from LS Central and feeds into LS Forecast.
LS Forecast - prepares the data and calculates the forecast.

In LS Central, the sales history data consists of Item Ledger Entries, Sales History Adjustment, and Out of Stock Days. These data are uploaded to LS Insight and processed using Azure Data Factory via Scheduler jobs in the LS Insight server.

The master data consists of Batches, Items, and Locations.

LS Forecast lets you calculate forecasts on daily, weekly, or monthly level for different item groups. This can be defined with a Batch and by setting up its Forecast Bucket. Each Batch can be assigned to different items or item groups via LS Forecast Item Links. For Batches that are set up with a weekly or monthly Forecast Bucket, the Weekly and Monthly Sales Bucket need to be set up in order to break down the forecast results into daily results. For more information, see Weekly Sales Bucket Calculation and Monthly Sales Bucket Calculation.

The LS Forecast Items and LS Forecast Locations contain the master data and parameters for items and locations that are set up for forecasting. The combination of the master data tells LS Forecast what items and locations are to be considered for forecasting, and how to forecast with them. The master data should be updated and synchronized to LS Forecast in a timely manner to ensure the availability and accuracy of the forecast results. This can be done either manually or via scheduler jobs in LS Central.

Once the master data and sales history data are synchronized and uploaded to LS Forecast, the forecast can be calculated via the Calculate Forecast functions. Then, the Download Forecast function is used to download the forecast results into LS Forecast Entries. All the aforementioned functions can be scheduled or triggered manually.

With the LS Forecast calculation type, the system uses the LS Forecast Entries to calculate and suggest the amount of stock to replenish within a specified period. The replenishment will also consider if there are Planned Sales Demands within the stock coverage period and adjust the calculation accordingly. If LS Forecast Entries are not found, it is also possible to calculate the replenishment based on Average Daily Sales by setting the Forecast Exception Handling to Use Average Usage Result in LS Forecast Setup.

LS Forecast

The following table is a list of LS Forecast related tasks with links to the topics that describe them.

To	See
Configure basic LS Forecast setup.	Basic LS Forecast Setup
Set up LS Forecast Batches.	How to: Set Up LS Forecast Batches
Set up locations for LS Forecast.	How to: Set Up Locations for LS Forecast
Set up items for LS Forecast.	How to: Set Up Items for LS Forecast
Set up dimensions for LS Forecast.	How to: Set Up LS Forecast Dimensions
Set up dimension entries for LS Forecast.	How to: Set Up LS Forecast Dimension Entries
Extend dimensions for LS Forecast.	How to: Extend LS Forecast Dimensions
Schedule the synchronization of the master data.	How to: Schedule Master Data Synchronization
Schedule the calculation and download of the forecast.	How to: Schedule LS Forecast Calculation
Calculate forecast manually.	How to: Calculate LS Forecast Manually
Set up LS Forecast calculation limit.	How to: Set Up LS Forecast Calculation Limit
View the forecast results downloaded from LS Forecast (in the form of raw entries or chart).	How to: View LS Forecast Entries Replenishment Sales Chart
View the LS Forecast Calculation Logs.	How to: View LS Forecast Calculation Logs
Learn more about the calculation process.	Calculation Process for LS Forecast

Weekly and Monthly Sales Bucket

For LS Forecast Batches that are set up with weekly or monthly Forecast Bucket, the Weekly or Monthly Sales Bucket needs to be set up to break down the forecast results into daily results.

The following table describes a list of Weekly Sales Bucket and Monthly Sales Bucket related tasks with links to the topics that describe them.

To	See
Set up Weekly Sales Bucket.	How to: Set Up Weekly Sales Buckets
Learn more about Weekly Sales Bucket calculation.	Weekly Sales Bucket Calculation
Set up Monthly Sales Bucket.	How to: Set Up Monthly Sales Buckets
Learn more about Monthly Sales Bucket calculation.	Monthly Sales Bucket Calculation

Variant Sales Bucket

For items with LS Forecast Variant Grouping activated, LS Forecast will calculate the forecast of all the variants from the item as an aggregation. The Variant Sales Bucket needs to be set up to break down the group forecast result into variant level.

The table below describes a list of Variant Sales Bucket related tasks with links to the topics that describe them.

To	See
Set up Variant Sales Bucket.	How to: Set Up Variant Sales Buckets
Learn more about Variant Sales Bucket calculation.	Variant Sales Bucket Calculation

Fields for LS Forecast calculation type

Common Replenishment data fields are described in Common Replenishment Data Fields.

Field	Description
Store Coverage Days Profile	This field tells the system how many days of sale the inventory at the store is supposed to cover with various factors like Location Closed Days, Inbound Location Handling Time, and Coverage Buffer Days to be considered in stock coverage days calculation, and also automatically adjust the coverage to reflect the days until the next replenishment calculation. When used with the replenishment calculation type LS Forecast, this coverage days indicates how far ahead the LS Forecast Entries will be considered for replenishment. For more information see Replen. Coverage Days Profile. Note: When the Store Coverage Days Profile is not defined, the system directly uses the value from the Store Stock Cover Reqd (Days) field.
Store Stock Cover Reqd (Days)	This field tells the system how many days of sale the inventory at the store is supposed to cover. When used with the replenishment calculation type LS Forecast, this coverage days indicates how far ahead the LS Forecast Entries will be considered for replenishment.
Wareh Coverage Days Profile	This field tells the system how many days of sale the inventory at the warehouse is supposed to cover with various factors like Location Closed Days, Inbound Whse. Handling Time, and Coverage Buffer Days to be considered in stock coverage days calculation, and also automatically adjust the coverage to reflect the days until the next replenishment calculation. When used with the replenishment calculation type LS Forecast, this coverage days indicates how far ahead the LS Forecast Entries will be considered for replenishment. For more information, see Replen. Coverage Days Profile. Note: When the Wareh Coverage Days Profile is not defined, the system directly uses the value from the Wareh Stock Cover Reqd (Days) field.
Wareh Stock Cover Reqd (Days)	This field works the same way as Store Stock Cover Reqd (Days), but here this field tells the system how many days of sale the inventory at the warehouse is supposed to cover.
LS Forecast Method	This field tells the system which forecasting model to use for the item when calculating the forecast. Available values: Automatic ARIMA Seasonal ARIMA Additive Blended Multipl. Blended
LS Forecast Calc. Horizon	This field tells the system how far ahead the forecast should be calculated for the item.
Confidence Factor Code	This field tells LS Forecast the confidence interval to be used for each item in the forecast calculation. This field corresponds to the Service Level % field in Replen. Confidence Factor. To access the Replen. Confidence Factor page, click the icon, enter Replen. Confidence Factor, and select the relevant link.
Safety Stock Calculation	This field specifies if the Forecast Quantity should use the upper value during replenishment calculation.
Replenishment Sales Profile	The system uses the Replenishment Sales Profile to calculate average daily sales. When used with the replenishment calculation type LS Forecast, this field is only visible when the Forecast Exception Handling in the LS Forecast Setup is set to Use Average Usage Result.
Enable Lead Time Calculation	This field tells the system whether the Vendor Lead Time (for Purchase) or Location Lead Time (for Transfer) will be considered during the replenishment calculation for the item. The field is used for the replenishment calculation types Average Usage, Manual Estimate, and LS Forecast. For more information see Lead Time Calculation.
LS Forecast Variant Grouping	This field tells the system whether the LS Forecast calculation will be performed in groups of variants. When activated for an item, LS Forecast will calculate the forecast of all the variants from the item as an aggregation. This field is only visible when Show Variant Grouping has been activated in LS Forecast Setup.